COP26: China, India, EU, US undermine global fossil-fuel phaseout pledge

COP26: China, India, EU, US undermine global fossil-fuel phaseout pledge, as rich nations refuse climate crisis support for poorest

Analysis

This COP has, to an extent, reflected the findings of the IPCC SR1.5 and IEA net zero report, mandating an acceleration in action and new plans by 2022 in the context of the voluntary, non binding UN regime.

All major emitters will be compelled to return in 12 months and explain at the UN how their economy-wide policies and plans are aligned to the Paris temperature goals.

While the unprecedented fossil fuels phase out pledge was weakened by a last minute deal between China (the world's largest fossil fuel consumer), the US (the world’s largest fossil-fuel producer), the EU and India, it is still there. Despite the watering down from “phase-out” to “phase down”, the cause of the climate crisis has for the first time since the Kyoto Protocol been called out by the 198 signatories of the Paris Agreement.

The change in language was condemned by small island states, Switzerland, Mexico and - ironically - the EU, which decided to support the shift despite slamming it as a "bad economic choice."

But despite progress on future emissions reductions, COP26 failed those most impacted by the climate crisis now. The EU and US refused to create a fund that the poorest countries could draw on for crisis response - outraging small islands and many climate vulnerable nations.

As with the COVID pandemic, global solidarity to save lives has not been on display in Glasgow.

The test of COP26 will be delivery: the next 18 months are crucial in determining whether countries take action aligned to 1.5C - that means cutting emissions by 45% by 2030.

Where progress was made

Closing the Paris rulebook means that by 2024 all countries will have to report detailed data on emissions forming the baseline from which future reductions can be assessed.

Agreement on new carbon market rules closes down some of the outrageous loopholes that had been considered and creates a structured trading regime between countries, but language isn’t clear enough to stop companies gaming the system.

Agreement on 2025 as the date by when developed countries need to double their collective funds for adaptation, based on 2019 pledges. This won’t provide the necessary billions for adaptation finance that poorer countries need, but is a major improvement on the state of climate finance: only about a quarter of climate finance currently goes to adaptation, with the majority still being on mitigation.

Sector specific agreements on forests, coal, cars, methane and a $24bn agreement to stop overseas fossil fuel finance have the potential to make significant inroads into cutting emissions, but will require translation from national governments into policies and plans that have to be presented to COP in Egypt next year.

The banks and investors announcements in week one were large in numbers but devoid of substance. But the major banks have now committed to align their money to net zero in the 2020s and will face scrutiny on how they deliver on their green claims and shed fossil-fuel and other high-carbon assets.

In response to fears of greenwashing from corporates, a new expert group to assess corporate net zero claims announced by the UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres will have its work cut out. A key issue will be whether those plans drive emissions reductions, not a spoke in offsets.

Despite COVID and high costs preventing the participation of many civil society and activist groups, we still saw diverse groups come together at this COP all echoing a strong wave of support for climate action. On Saturday 6 November, over 100,000 people took to the streets in Glasgow, in one of the biggest demonstrations the city has ever seen, with indigenous groups, frontline health professionals, youth, trade unions, farm workers, and racial justice groups joining on the day.

What was not delivered

-Developing countries wanted a clear plan for a loss and damage funding facility. This did not happen and focus will shift to Egypt next year to deliver this. African nations spend up to 10% of GDP a year on adaptation while impacts could deliver a 20% hit to GDP in poor nations by 2050 say Christian Aid.

Cover text specifics: https://unfccc.int/documents

-Developed countries double collective adaptation finance from 2019 levels by 2025

-New UN work programme to scale up GHG cuts, reporting at COP27 in 2022

-'Urges' [strong language] countries who have not landed new plans to do so by 2022

-Requests all countries to raise climate targets in line with 1.5-2C by and of 2022

-Commissions annual UN assessment of climate plans from 2022

-Signal to countries to accelerate shift off fossil fuels, coal to renewable energy

-Notes "deep regret" of developed countries for missing $100bn target

-Urges countries' to 'fully deliver on the $100 billion goal 'urgently' through 2025

-Welcomes the further operationalization of the Santiago network

-Santiago network will be provided with funds to support technical assistance

-Urges countries to provide funds to the Santiago network

Paris rulebook - what happened

Carbon markets - Article 6 The text has closed some of the outrageous loopholes, but it is not tight enough to stop companies and countries from using carbon credits as an easy way to continue polluting. And vitally, the levy on some of these transactions going to help fund the poorest countries adapt to climate change was removed. Negotiators have been trying to sign this deal for years, but the one that has been agreed at COP26 is a compromise that doesn't fully pass the test of integrity.

Transparency

The new rules represent a new era in scrutiny on government climate pledges and will ensure that by 2024 everyone can assess what other countries are doing. It means a central element of the Paris Agreement will be up and running by the mid 2020s, and we should now have more regular and more robust information on the state of GHG emissions and progress made towards implementing NDCs.

Proposals that some Parties would not all use the same tables and formats for reporting are no longer included in the text. The text includes references to support for developing country Parties, and maintains the deadline for the submission of the first biennial transparency reports under the Paris Agreement by 2024.

Timelines

Agreed rules mean all countries should deliver climate plans to the UN on 5-year cycles, although analysts point to the use of the word 'encouraged' to use a common time frame for NDCs starting 2025 (with countries submitting 2035 NDCs in 2025, 2040 NDCs in 2030, etc). This "encouraged" language is weaker than before.

What else was agreed

Boris Johnson set out as a measure for success for this COP action on coal, cars, cash and trees. There was a tsunami of deals delivered during COP, but the good have to be separated from the bad and the ugly: find an assessment of all the main deals here.

Climate Action Tracker found that the methane, coal, forests and transport deals contain additional action which would close the emissions gap to a 1.5C path by 9% or 2.2 GtCO2e.

The deals come into a transition which is sufficiently under way that there is no longer a meaningful case for investing in new carbon-heavy infrastructure, according to think tank Systemiq in a report released during COP. All major sectors are capable of developing cost-competitive green solutions by 2030, meaning the business case for any high-carbon infrastructure built today should be seriously questioned.

For sectoral action to help close the gap to the 1.5C threshold in time, governments will need to deploy supportive policies and the signatories to these deals will need to be held to account to come good on their promises.

Quotes

Laurence Tubiana, CEO - European Climate Foundation

Paris is working. Despite the COVID-19 crisis, we have accelerated action, the COP has responded to the IPCC’s call to close the gap towards 1.5, and coal is in the text. But there is a lot more to do.

The commitments and claims of the first week on finance, forests, end of public finance for fossil fuel, methane and cars must now be translated into real policy and incorporated in the new NDCs that has to be delivered by 2022. And Oil and gas production still to be addressed.

Greenwashing is the new climate denial, and we have seen too much at play in this COP. We must strengthen accountability mechanisms for net-zero going forward. We see through the discussions in Glasgow that the international finance system is not fit for the challenge and is unable to respond to the call of Mia Mottley, PM of Barbados. It needs to be fixed by world leaders now.

And we must address the impacts of the climate crisis on the most vulnerable. This COP has failed to provide immediate assistance for people suffering now. I welcome the doubling of adaptation finance as climate impacts are every year stronger, loss and damage must be at the top of the agenda for COP 27.

Vanessa Nakate, activist from Uganda, Fridays for Future

“Even if leaders stuck to the promises they have made here in Glasgow, it would not prevent the destruction of communities like mine. Right now, at 1.2 degrees Celsius of global warming, drought and flooding are killing people in Uganda.

Only immediate, drastic emissions cuts will give us hope of safety, and world leaders have failed to rise to the moment. But people are joining our movement. 100,000 people from all different backgrounds came to the streets in Glasgow during COP, and the pressure for change is building.”

Rachel Kyte, Dean - Tufts Fletcher School

"The agreement closes down some of the outrageous loopholes that had been considered, but the language remains unclear in some areas and we have much to do to stop companies and countries gaming the system. We have no room or time for Markets like buckets of water, with 100 tiny holes. It will spill out and dilute the Paris Agreement and make keeping warming to 1.5C that much harder.

What the deal does do, however, is make it even more important that voluntary use of carbon markets is limited, high quality and used in specific circumstances. Science drives integrity and integrity may drive scale. That makes the job of the UN Secretary General’s export group on setting standards for corporate net zero commitments all the more important."

Mohamed Adow, Director of Power Shift Africa

“This summit has been a triumph of diplomacy over real substance. The outcome here reflects a COP held in the rich world and the outcome contains the priorities of the rich world. Not only did developed countries fail to deliver the long promised $100 billion of climate finance to poorer countries, but they have also failed to recognise the urgency of delivering this financial support. They claim to want urgency on emissions reductions, yet they continue to expand fossil fuel production within their own borders.

For the first time we have a COP decision calling for efforts towards the phase out of coal and fossil fuel subsidies. This is welcome progress, but more is needed including phasing out oil and gas and moving rapidly to renewables. The narrowing of the language to just cover ‘unabated’ coal power and ‘inefficient’ subsidies leaves room for untested technologies such as CCS which only the rich world has access to. We need a global phase out that is fast, fair and final for all fossil fuels.

On loss and damage, it feels bad that we have nothing to show for the hard work the vulnerables put in, but loss and damage is now up the political agenda in a way it was never before and the only way out is for it to be eventually delivered. We are leaving empty handed but morally stronger and hopeful that we can sustain the momentum in the coming year to deliver meaningful support which will allow the vulnerables to deal with the irreversible impacts of climate change created by the polluting world who are failing to take responsibility.”

Shauna Aminath, Environment Minister, Maldives

"The Maldives notes the incremental progress made in Glasgow that's not in line with the urgency and scale required. What is balanced and pragmatic to other parties will not help the Maldives adapt in time. For some, loss and damage may be the beginning of conversation and dialogue, but for us this is a matter of survival.

So while we recognise the foundations that this outcome provides, it does not bring hope to our hearts, but serves as yet another conversation where we put our homes on the line, while those who have other options decide how quickly they want to act to save those who don’t.

We have heard that the technology is available. We know trillions are spent on fossil fuels. So we know that this is not about the lack of either of them. We have 98 months to halve global emissions. The difference between 1.5 and 2 degrees is a death sentence for us."

Alden Meyer, Senior Associate, E3G

“We saw a call here in Glasgow for emergency actions to deal with the existential threat of climate change, and some important initiatives were launched, but whether enough countries raise their 2030 ambition enough to keep 1.5 degrees C in reach will be the real test of the success of this COP.

Developed countries committed to double finance for developing country adaptation, but much more is needed to help these countries prepare for the increased climate impacts they will face in coming years.

Loss and damage was a high-profile issue at this COP, but the dialogues called for over the next few years provide no assurance that the vulnerable countries and communities facing devastating climate impacts will get the help they need. The US, EU, and other developed countries will need to come to these dialogues prepared to put real solutions on the table.

As a lifelong optimist, I see the Glasgow outcome as half-full rather than half-empty. But the atmosphere responds to emissions -- not COP decisions -- and much work remains ahead to translate the strong rhetoric here into reality.”

Sara Jane Ahmed, Climate Vulnerable Forum / V20 Finance Advisor

“COP26 achieved some progress but fell short of a complete “Emergency Pact” to reflect the climate emergency we are all in. Developing countries have said clearly and for many years that climate ambition must include mitigation, adaptation, finance, technology transfer and loss and damage.

The lack of a solid resolution to providing finance for vulnerable countries hit by costly climate disasters and complex transition risks is a failure that will need to be addressed. The $500 bn delivery rebuilds trust.

Developed countries must quickly deliver an improved quantity and quality of climate finance, and the next COP will need to deliver progress on financing for loss and damage.”

José Gregorio Mirabal Díaz - Elected leader of COICA (an umbrella organization that includes Indigenous leaders from all nine nations of the Amazon)

“We will always have the hope that we can stop the climate crisis with the support of all, but until now the extractivism development model has deceived the world. This must change now. If the solution is to protect nature to avoid climate change, this can only be done with giving land titles for Indigenous peoples, allowing us to self-demarcate our territories so that external invasions do not come, whether of oil, gold, mining or any type of extractive exploitation.”

Jennifer Morgan, Executive Director, Greenpeace International

“It’s meek, it’s weak and the 1.5C goal is only just alive, but a signal has been sent that the era of coal is ending. And that matters.

“Glasgow was meant to deliver on firmly closing the gap to 1.5C and that didn’t happen, but in 2022 nations will now have to come back with stronger targets. The only reason we got what we did is because young people, Indigenous leaders, activists and countries on the climate frontline forced concessions that were grudgingly given.

“The line on phasing out unabated coal and fossil fuel subsidies is weak and compromised but its very existence is nevertheless a breakthrough, and the focus on a just transition is essential. The call for emissions reductions of 45% by the end of this decade is in line with what we need to do to stay under 1.5C and brings the science firmly into this deal. But it needs to be implemented.

“The offsets scam got a boost in Glasgow with the creation of new loopholes that are too big to tolerate, endangering nature, Indigenous Peoples and the 1.5C goal itself. The UN Secretary General announced that a group of experts will bring vital scrutiny to offset markets, but much work still needs to be done to stop the greenwashing, cheating and loopholes giving big emitters and corporations a pass.”

Malango Mughogho - Managing Director, ZeniZeni

“Ambition on climate change cannot be separated from the need for a massive scale-up in funding for vulnerable countries. The massive fiscal response to the pandemic tells us that the money is there. We now need to get the money to those who need it the most. While some of the decisions taken in Glasgow offer an outline of how to do this, there is a critical need for additional finance to support adaptation and loss and damage in vulnerable countries.”

Luisa Neubauer, activist from Germany, Fridays for Future

“We are not facing some interesting diplomatic puzzle, we are facing a climate catastrophe. This COP failed to introduce the systemic changes we so desperately need. Heads of State have not delivered what we demand, but the climate movement is growing and more people are coming on board. When we say “1.5 is not negotiable”, we mean it.”

Ani Dasgupta, President & CEO, World Resources Institute

“In a year marked by uncertainty and mistrust, COP26 affirmed the importance of collective global action to address the climate crisis. While we are not yet on track, the progress made over the last year and at the COP26 summit offers a strong foundation to build upon. The real test now is whether countries accelerate their efforts and translate their commitments into action.

“The train is moving and all countries need to get on board. As attention shifts beyond COP26, it’s critical for everyone to step up their efforts and turn commitments into real action in ways that benefit all people.”

Jennifer Tollmann, Senior Policy Advisor, E3G

”Despite committing to high ambition, the EU struggled to build bridges with the US, China or small island states across North-South divides. A handful of EU countries worked closely with small island nations and least developed countries in the High Ambition Coalition. In the final moments, the EU benefited from the responsible action of small island states, joining them in holding the line on an outcome that keeps 1.5 in reach.

The task now is to change the politics and that could see those sceptical of the Glasgow Climate Pact come back to the table with more ambition. Leaders clearly recognized that getting the trillions flowing to support just transitions is make or break. The EU must decide whether its ‘Global Gateway’ will be part of the solution, and whether they can invest in diplomacy to see international partners develop their own green transitions.

Rebuilding relationships and trust with climate vulnerable countries will be harder. The EU must be willing to be part of the solution on supporting partners dealing with the devastating losses and damages from climate change.”

Li Shuo, Senior Global Policy Advisor, Greenpeace East Asia

“Glasgow did not deliver 1.5C. It only kept the goal alive, if countries work hard enough immediately after this COP. NDCs have to be revisited and strengthened next year. We need not just targets on paper, but real action in practice.

COP26 took place in a challenging geopolitical environment. The US and China managed their differences and demonstrated the need for cooperation. But the climate crisis demands the global community to do more than what Beijing and Washington are able to agree.

This time, different from Paris, the multilateral train moved faster than the G2 agreement. Time for the world’s two largest emitters to catch up to really lead from the front.”

Dinamam Tuxã, Articulação dos Povos Indígenas do Brasil (APIB)

“We know the economic actors; when they invest in nature, they are looking for profits and they have a hard time understanding how we view nature because we don’t put a price on it.

Ironically right now, for those investors who are serious about protecting nature, we share the same goal — to keep the forests standing, but without us and our rights to provide the protection, these forests will not last.”

Richard Black, Research Fellow - Imperial College

“This summit has definitely moved the dial on several aspects of climate change – governments have taken steps to improve the lot of the most vulnerable nations, the missing pages of the Paris Agreement rulebook have been filled in, and governments that are marking time on emissions reduction are requested to come back next year with a more serious offer.

“Above all, for the first time all governments formally agreed that phasing out coal is essential to combatting climate change and that fossil fuel subsidies should go as well. They didn’t all want to, but reality is sometimes impossible to wish away. Some will have been looking to COP26 to solve climate change, but no summit could ever do that. It has done enough, however, to keep the 1.5°C target in play – but individual governments have a lot of work to do quickly to turn pledges into action.”

Ulka Kelkar, Climate Programme Director, WRI India

“India will be affected by COP26 asking countries to phase out polluting coal power and withdraw inefficient fossil fuel subsidies. India will also have to join other countries to escalate emission reduction actions more frequently. This will not be easy for a lower-middle income country that is trying to lift millions of people out of poverty.

India’s battle against climate change will be led by scaling up renewable energy, which will be the foundation of our net zero future; by industry, who will fight to stay competitive in the global economy; and by states and cities, who will need to urbanize with respect for nature.

Now that COP-26 has finalised the rules of carbon trading, India will be able to sell more than a million carbon credits from previous years, and can also create a domestic market for carbon trading.”

Maya Mailer, organizer with Our Kids Climate

“World leaders, and some more than others, have fallen far short and they will have to reckon with their consciences when they get back home to their own kids and citizens. Yes, for the first time the COP agreement text mentions phasing out coal and fossil fuel subsidies which is significant, and we can all breathe a little bit easier.

“But this is nowhere near enough. Leading experts and scientists have said clearly that we need to end all new fossil fuel projects - coal and gas and oil - if we're to have a fighting chance of limiting dangerous global overheating to 1.5°C. This is what we need to protect all the world's children and our only home. So many families, especially in the global South, are already suffering the consequences of climate breakdown; it is heartbreaking.

I will hug my children closer than ever tonight - and as a mother, I'm going to keep fighting together with thousands of fellow parents, to end fossil fuels and keep my kids, and all kids, safe.”

Ines Camilloni, IPCC author

“Although the 1.5C target is still alive, the longer they delay, the more difficult it is to reach it. We are facing promises and commitments, but they have to be acted upon now. There is no time to spare. We would have to reduce emissions by more than 7% every year, and this year they increased again. The only reduction with a tremendous pandemic was in 2020, by just over 5%.

“As long as important decisions continue to be postponed, the message is discouraging. From the IPCC authors we put out a statement calling for the importance of limiting by 1.5C and urgency. The evidence is there and the message is clear and forceful.”

Jacob Dubbins, Co-founder, Conscious Advertising Network

“Finally, the dangers of climate disinformation and misinformation have been recognised at this COP. A global coalition of leading businesses, disinformation experts and the climate community are uniting to confront this complex threat.

We all depend on critical climate science, and climate action cannot be undermined by denial, delay, and false solutions. Leaders, governments and tech platforms must act now to implement policies that define climate dis/misinformation and actions to counter it.”

Marina Romanello, Research Director, The Lancet Countdown

“The evidence provided by the medical and scientific community is clear: climate change is already affecting the health of people around the world, and particularly the most vulnerable in every society. The world is already facing 1.1C above the pre-industrial average, and an increase of 1.5C is already inevitable.

This agreement accelerates ambitions, with major achievements over previous agreements, such as the explicit mention of coal and inefficient fossil fuel subsidies. However, it is still insufficient to protect health in the face of the greatest global health threat we have ever faced.

But it does not end there, and it is our responsibility year after year to demand that decision-makers increase their ambition to achieve an accelerated and equitable transition that protects the health of our populations from the most severe impacts of climate change, and provides immediate health benefits with cleaner air, healthier diets, and cities and jobs that allow us to live healthy and prosperous lives.”