COP26 climate diplomacy briefing

AC-DC

Did Washington and Beijing just short circuit or rewire the COP26 talks with their surprise joint statement? Two views emerged overnight. One: This was a stage-managed nothingburger. There was nothing new bar words, nothing on coal, finance or loss and damage. The other: The methane and forest lines are positive, as is a new diplomatic alliance and foundation forged between bitter rivals after 30 meetings in 2021.

Caution

"The success of that cooperation will be judged on the outcome of COP26," suggested Laurence Tubiana, Paris Agreement architect. It's "far from saving the planet" but paragraph 12b is key, says Li Shuo, Greenpeace's long-time talks observer, leaving the door open for tougher GHG cuts from both.

"The language is carefully drafted for China to claim it's ‘not re-negotiating Paris,’ [and] for the US to claim current NDCs are not the last word," he says.

Laser focus

The much-vaunted deal will add a new dynamic into the talks, raising questions over China's role in the BASIC and LMDC alliances it frequently bosses. Beijing extracted zero cash for developing nations from the US - which Oxfam/WRI suggest owes $40bn a year - while brushing aside the 1.5C target. China media was broadly positive, while NRDC and CAP were among the US think tanks lavishing praise on the deal. While that was going on, the BASIC group issued a communique doubling down on demands to rich nations for $$$.

High spirits

The desperation to finalise COP26 is palpable: Mexico offered tequila to the UK delegation should talks conclude on time; Russia offered vodka. In a tense heads of delegation meeting yesterday evening, countries worked through the headline 'CMA' text that will form the main political outcome from COP26, perhaps in the next 48 hours. After the first draft dropped early on Wednesday, a new iteration is due soon.

Hard yards

This is an incredibly hard summit to call. Perhaps one of the hardest I can recall after a decade covering these meetings. What's becoming clear is that there is no universal goal here - party priorities are diverse, from the so-called 1.5C 'ratchet', finance and support to a concluded rulebook and a range of sectoral deals that have marked both weeks. There is draining complexity to this meeting like no other, and with around 48 hours to run, people are getting tired.