COP26 climate diplomacy briefing

UN legal language is complex and opaque but active verbs are central. We understand from UN veterans that requests is the second strongest wording in UN lingo, but just below instructs, not decides - which wouldn’t play in a nationally determined framework, and is stronger than the previous “urges”. In other “important details” news, CMA4 is next year's COP 27 in Egypt.

Background

Consultations between the UK Presidency and countries appear to have been intense - and lasted well into last night. UN boss Guterres set the bar in a punchy Thursday address: "We cannot settle for the lowest common denominator. We know what must be done. Keeping the 1.5 goal within reach means reducing emissions globally by 45% by 2030."

Sleeping bags

You may want to buy one on your way into the venue as this could run. Recent COPs have all been on the long side: COP25 in 2019 finished at 1355 on Sunday. Bring provisions: you don't want to be eating the venue's fish all night. And don't let Reuters steal all the cushions as they did in Warsaw.

UK warned

14 senior advisors to the COP26 Presidency wrote to Alok Sharma on Thursday, urging him to ensure the summit ends with "measurable acceleration of action on mitigation, as well as adaptation and financing." Signed by COP20 President Manuel Pulgar-Vidal, ex UN envoy Rachel Kyte and former Unilever boss Paul Polman, the letter says the final text must ask countries for tougher plans "by COP27, or COP28 at the latest."

Fossil fuel subs

The draft COP26 cover text was *not* the first time fossil fuel subsidies were in a binding UN text. Calls to quit subsidizing fossil fuels were in the 1997 Kyoto Protocol - Article 2.1a (v). "Progressive reduction or phasing out of market imperfections, fiscal incentives, tax and duty exemptions and subsidies in all greenhouse gas emitting sectors that run counter to the objective of the Convention and apply market instruments." Strictly speaking, it means this is *still* applicable now.

EU AWOL

Commission officials kicked off *operation reverse ferret* on Thursday, with a briefing blitz to showcase what Brussels has been up to in the past 10 days - stung by Wednesday's US-China deal and this AVAAZ stunt. The lack of visibility had led to some calls for Italy to take charge but Commissioner Franz Timmermans claimed the EU was "active on all fronts" and negotiating "every single subject". Sepi Golzari-Munro, director of climate think tank ECIU, suggested the European Union was "losing its mojo".

Birddog

Maybe more heat will bring the EU mojo back? At 10am the Glasgow Action Pact will stage an ‘art installation’ just outside the venue featuring some well known figures. Contact denise@glasgowactions.com /+1-608-320-6582 for more information.

Corridor chat

EU: Backs fossil fuel language - “attach huge importance to reference coal exit and fossil fuel staying in the text... removing it would send a really really bad message”.

AOSIS: difficult to support an agreement that doesn’t reflect 45% GHG cuts by 2030.

LMDC: The issue is not to keep 1.5 alive - but to keep the PA alive.

**Check this Carbon Brief explainer on key negotiating alliances**

Finance

Much of the finance pars in the new text are just placeholders as feisty negotiations continue. Rumours persist talks are blocked due to a disagreement over process and procedures between South African and US negotiators. The EU is talking up its contributions on adaptation finance, but is shirking stronger text on doubling the pot, worried other rich nations will skip the bill at the end of the night. The text on the common goal for post 2025 finance remains bracketed.

Success

As a reminder, this COP should i) agree to collectively double adaptation finance ii) agree a plan to define climate finance including countries’ needs, and establish a comprehensive process for a climate finance plan post 2025 iii) Establish a docking point for the financing of loss and damage iv) Acknowledge the dropped ball on the 100bn by 2020 promise and agree to $500bn between 2020 and 2024.

Markets

Confusion reigns in Article 6: technicalities reached absurdity on Thursday with Art 6.2 para 11 of the Annex causing confusion about if it’s double counting or not. If it is, the integrity of the whole agreement could be called into question. Brazil and Japan came out with a new proposal (not available online), but NGOs are saying it creates a two tier system for good and not so good credits, meaning it skews the market. REDD+ (avoided emissions from deforestation) is in, setting hares running about hypothetical future reductions by averting illegal logging. New text due later. For more email liz.gallagher@gsccnetwork.org

Scam

Greenpeace is not amused. "If offsets are a scam, double counting of emissions reductions is a slap in the face… negotiators must stop the greenwashing monster that the UN Secretary General warned against. We cannot leave Glasgow with an Article 6 Agreement that is littered with loopholes that undermine real climate action." That's their COP26 lead Juan Pablo Osornio.

Transparency

Cheating is a hot topic in Glasgow. The only policeman the Paris Agreement has is peer pressure - that only works if countries can see and understand what others are doing. At the moment we’re counting apples against pears: it’s not clear who is gaming the system, who is cheating and what the metrics we need to be judged on are. At Glasgow, negotiators are agreeing the format for and standards of the reports they will all file - the first reports due in 2024 - which means we need to get it done now to give countries time to learn to use the software. The technical talks have done their bit, this is now purely politics and will get traded off against other issues. Link to yesterday’s briefing here

Timeframes

Headache inducing. The latest text calls for countries to do 5 years in 2025 (2035 targets) but has a second paragraph inviting countries who can’t commit to 5 years in 2025 to do so in 2030 (ie for 2040). But it doesn’t specify what countries who do so in 2030 would do in 2025 - and there’s a fear this would mean many countries setting 10 year timeframes if they want. There’s intel suggesting this proposal came from Saudi.

Loss and damage

Late Thursday, after fraught talks, a ministerial concluded with what could be a breakthrough, but the details remain vague. The G77 + China submitted proposals for a funded Loss & Damage facility. They want it founded here but with a process to provide recommendations to the next COP on how to get it up and running. CVF chair Saleemul Huq says there’s precedents for doing so. But it is unclear whether this would get support from countries like the US who have traditionally opposed big moves in this space.

Special money

Some developed countries are saying that the IMF’s special drawing rights - the special emergency currency that is distributed based on GDP size which can then be re-channelled to vulnerables - could be put in a trust and used for climate finance, including on loss and damage. But a couple of issues with that: vulnerable countries were eyeing that to address their indebtedness as a result of the COVID crisis and the SDRs are a one off which sadly climate impacts won't be.

Top trolling

That award goes to the Scottish Government, which re-announced plans to double its loss & damage / climate justice fund on Thursday, putting the UK hosts of COP26 (who have no plans to directly fund loss and damage) in a bind. It won the First Minister the 'Ray of the Day' from civil society and warm praise from activists. "The US is giving us zero dollars and the EU is giving us zero euros. But Scotland is giving us 2 million pounds… the true leader that has emerged here in COP26," said Saleemul Huq.

PABU?

Partners in the regional market, partners in the fight against climate change? Yesterday, Paraguay joined ABU, the negotiating bloc created by Argentina, Brazil and Uruguay in 2016. This is the first time that the four members of MERCOSUR (Common Market of the South) join forces in the UNFCCC. The main reason? The shared vision of putting agriculture at the top of the agenda. Be warned.

I'll leave you with a couple of tunes... Miracle by Chvrches ("I'm not asking for a miracle

Ask for forever when the end is in sight") and this Modern People classic, a request from veteran COP watcher Christain Teriete, who's a big fan.