COP26 climate diplomacy briefing - Day 12

1800 update

It's always darkest just before dawn. If you're confused, you're not alone. On the positive front, it might not be an all-nighter. Delegations are now roaming corridors & a flurry of meetings are taking place behind closed doors. A third draft text is due tonight, but if it comes it's unlikely to be the last version as battles over loss & damage, carbon markets and finance flare. This is a test of COP President Alok Sharma's nerve and whether he can deliver ambitious outcomes where there isn't obvious consensus.

Endgame #2

Today’s plenary showed a notable level of consensus around the mitigation elements of the text. The first mention of fossil fuels in a UN climate deal since the 1997 Kyoto Protocol has stayed in place, as have rapid timelines on new plans and revised commitments to action in the 2020s. However, interventions from the EU and US on one hand and AOSIS and the G77 groups on the other showed that significant gaps still exist between the big economies, the most vulnerable and poorest nations.

Landing zones

Africa and the island states have definitely not given up on further movement on Loss & Damage from the EU and US... who as of writing appear to be holding firm against the establishment of a ‘Glasgow’ funding facility. But there may be a landing zone between the working groups on offer and the full blown facility. There’s still some working through of the ‘doubling adaptation finance’ language as well, but that may be closer to an outcome.

New US, old umbrella Article 6, the rules for trading carbon credits under the Paris Agreement, was what prevented an outcome at the last COP in Madrid. The Umbrella Group (US, Japan, Australia and others) are holding out for only voluntary cancellation of credits over time, which other AOSIS, G77 and High-Ambition Coalition members claim undermines the whole aim of the market, to reduce emissions. Seems like a weird hill to choose to die on, but it's happened before.

Who's saying what

*AOSIS - FF language is not strong enough. Doubling ada finance welcome, 2025 too late, wants 2023

*AILAC - 1.5C needs full phase out of coal and fossil subsidies / need stronger language on mitigation

*Africa Group - G20 need to step up

*China - All parties should take strong action and enhance cooperation, under the principle of CBDR. Finance and technology support needed

*EU - 1.5C needs to be central to the final decision / need to grow climate finance donor base

*Kenya: Text should be preserved - can’t get weaker or go back from here

*India: Developed country parties should take the lead - on phasing out fossil fuels, enhancing NDCs *EIG - 1.5C needs to be stronger: main emitters not on path to 1.5C / Fossil fuel language vital

*LDCs - 1.5C key, need radical cuts this decade / Finance for L&D remains most crucial

*LMDC - Pre-2020 ambition vital / last of finance a concern / need finance for loss & damage

*Saudi Arabia - Cover decision is ‘workable’, can be considered

*Russia - Don’t drag out discussions, make concessions

*South Korea - We are very close to consensus and can complete our task by today

*Canada - we need tougher language on 1.5C

*Norway - support strong language on 1.5C, finance

*Marshall Islands - Need to keep coming back to the table 1.5C

EU, US

Somalia's environment minister broke cover to ask the US and EU to "provide their full diplomatic and financial backing" to African countries on loss and damage, adaptation finance. Tuvalu backed up this line in the plenary, calling for more support for a new loss & damage facility and adaptation finance. "Tuvalu is literally sinking," he said. 'We must not fail." One delegate in the High Ambition Coalition meeting this morning indicated that Brussels and Washington were firm on their red lines on these explosive issues - in contrast to Germany, Denmark and Sweden.

The loss & damage ask

The best case outcome on loss and damage is that this COP could set up a facility where access to different funding becomes easier and faster. African nations are already spending up to 10% of annual GDP on adaptation - which gives you a sense of the challenge. When a hurricane hits a small island developing nation, it can currently take 1-2 years to access funding - this is not what you want to face when you have to rebuild your hospitals and infrastructure.

48 hours

No shift on finance could mean no deal. That's the warning from E3G's Alden Meyer - one of the few here who has attended every single COP since they started in 1995 (The fish was better in the other 25). He said no shifts on cash will provoke the G77 into filibustering. "If we don't do that, I'm not sure we'll get out tonight, tomorrow or Sunday. We need a change of mindset in the next 48 hours." Kenyan think tank director Mohamed Adow also pinned the EU and US. "We have not seen movement around support for this, and we have not seen this US administration changing direction when it comes to support - and that's a position increasingly supported by the European Union."

Article 6

The landmines that could blow-up the Paris Agreement are still present in the Article 6 text. When a carbon market is part of a climate agreement, you could reasonably expect it would be designed to reduce emissions and not just trade. As AOSIS put it in plenary “the age of zero sum offsets is over”.

But Japan and the US, under the cover of the Umbrella Group they share with Australia, the EU and others, are advocating not to have mandatory cancellation of credits over time, and for “voluntary OMGE” in the lexicon of Article 6. AOSIS, G77 and other groups have made it clear that the Article 6 market must deliver actual emissions reductions (and the related increase in the value of increasingly scarce offsets). Insiders indicate this disagreement has the potential to blow-up the Glasgow outcome.

Corridor rumours

The last 24 hours of any COP are a briefing nightmare, with coalitions and countries working the halls and media room to screw opponents. John Kerry looks like he's in for a rough evening. The CVF envoy has requested a meeting with John Kerry this evening to ask support for their Climate Emergency package. Both Kerry / Timmermans must be feeling the heat: both have had heated exchanges with NGOs in the past 24 hours - they can't get greyer but they might feel a little older by Saturday.