Global Climate Diplomacy Briefing - September 2022

G-Zero

Pakistan is counting the cost of climate change this week. 1,000 people dead so far, 1,600 injured, 33 million displaced, 2m acres of crops gone and a third of the country under water. The floods were - perhaps - an opportunity for G20 climate ministers meeting in Indonesia over the past few days to signal their determination to tackle the worsening global crisis. Instead the lack of a statement or communique, allied with a rambling press event from the Indonesia hosts, suggests deep splits among governments.

Backsliding

"What we did see was a number of countries backsliding on the commitments that they made in Paris and in Glasgow," COP26 President Alok Sharma told Reuters. Observers say China - itself suffering a record-breaking heatwave and drought - pushed back on all references to the 1.5C temperature limit (which was in both the 2021 G20 leaders text and Glasgow Pact). Brazil and Saudi Arabia were among others blamed for little progress. Hosts Indonesia - branded weak by some - indicated tensions over Russia exacerbated splits. "No progress but no backsliding" is one take.

$10bn

Pakistan's clean-up bill will top $10bn, planning minister Ahsan Iqbal told Reuters. Add to that expected food shortages and long-term migration shifts, and the country's $1.1bn bailout from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Monday looks a pittance. Pakistan does have experience of severe floods - in 2010 around 20 million were impacted, compared to 30 million this time round. Expect campaigners to ramp up their call for a COP27 loss & damage finance plan at the UN General Assembly, which starts on 13 Sept.

1.5C

The scale and intensity of these disasters will steadily increase as the planet warms. That was the blunt warning from the IPCC WG2 climate science report. And new UN climate boss Simon Stiell - formerly Grenada's environment minister - made saving the 1.5C target central to his first tweet in the role this week. A vocal champion for small islands, adaptation investment and more aggressive carbon cuts while a minister, we can expect Stiell to inject new energy and focus into UN climate communications.

UNGA77

The looming UN General Assembly will be dominated by Russia's war on Ukraine and US-China tensions, but expect small islands and African nations to demand more climate finance support over the two weeks. UN boss Antonio Guterres spoke this week of his "outrage" that climate action is "being put on the back burner". Vanuatu's government, tired of inaction, will seek UN General Assembly backing to get the ICJ - the world's top court - to issue a legal ruling on climate change.

COP27

All this makes Egypt's task of delivering a successful summit in November look tougher by the day, with some even questioning the UNFCCC's future. The conspicuous lack of new climate finance is a massive headache for the organisers - as this Nature editorial explains. The UN's NDC synthesis report due 23 Sept will not - despite India's new plan - send corks popping. On the flip side, this July speech by Germany's foreign minister suggests there is a window for compromise on loss & damage in Europe.

1

That's how many EU leaders plan to attend a climate adaptation meeting in the Netherlands this month, Leaders from Senegal, Kenya, Ethiopia, Ghana, Gabon, the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Zambia will be there, but it's apparently too far for the PMs and Presidents of France, Denmark, Finland and Norway. Just another example, says Theodore Murphy from the European Council on Foreign Relations, of “how, when the chips are down, Europe's not around. Basically Africa is Europe's partner of convenience.”

Party poopers

US Democrats are busy taking victory laps and high fives over the passage of the Inflation Reduction Act, which promises to deliver $369 billion additional public investments for clean energy and climate in the US. It's a start, but domestic action to reduce emissions is only one pillar of what developed countries committed to do under the Paris Agreement. The US is still a major laggard when it comes to providing support to developing countries, as this NRDC analysis makes clear.

$1bn

Last year, Biden made a major pledge to increase US climate finance to $11 billion a year by 2024, quadrupling Obama-era levels. Getting the funding approved by Congress continues to be an uphill struggle - for the fiscal year 2022, Congress approved just $1 billion for dedicated international climate funding. If US officials arrive in Sharm expecting to be celebrated as heroes without having delivered on their international funding commitments, they will be in for a rude awakening.

$697bn

It's cashback time for oil, gas and coal. Not only is the industry making record profits, it's also seeing rising support from governments. The OECD club of rich countries and International Energy Agency reckon fossil fuel subsidies in 51 of the largest economies nearly doubled to $697 billion in 2021. And this is all before the invasion of Ukraine, so 2022 is likely to be even higher. In contrast, the OECD's 2021 climate finance report says climate finance is around $83bn a year.

Windfall tax

Big oil's boom amid an energy crisis is - as this FT article argues - making the case green campaigners have tried to make for decades. Adair Turner, chair of the Energy Transitions Commission, reckons the gas hike is the equivalent of a “massive” carbon tax of around $600-$950 a tonne, writes ex No.10 policy chief Camilla Cavendish. EU leaders are inching towards taxing big fossil's huge profits. Commission chief Ursula Von der Leyen is expected to detail policy plans in a speech on 14 Sept.

$6-10 trillion

That's how much public & private investment the IMF reckons is needed through the 2020s to meet the climate challenge and super-charge clean energy, around 6-10% of annual global GDP. IMF boss Kristalina Georgieva published an intriguing blog mid August urging governments and development banks to move fast to cut clean energy investment risks & hinting the IMF will offer advice in October's Global Financial Stability Report. Climate is "one of the most critical macroeconomic and financial policy challenges that IMF members face," she wrote.

In brief

*China’s CO2 emissions fell 8% in Q2 of 2022

*Lula backs Brazil-Congo-Indonesia rainforest alliance

*Climate 'trust funds': the answer to the $100bn headache?

*US envoy Kerry asks China to reboot climate talks

*China says US climate talks could resume, sets conditions

*Nigeria outlines plans for national cap and trade system

*Egypt NGOs fear COP27 shut-out by govt

*Truss set to appoint 'climate dinosaur' as UK energy chief

*US rolls out $1500 a tonne methane charge

September's key dates

16: 50 days until COP27

19: Rwanda-UK Climate & Development Ministerial

19-21: UNGA World Leaders Roundtable

19-25: Climate Week, NYC

20: UNGA High level Debate, COP27 Forum High level Roundtable

22-23: Clean Energy Ministerial (CEM), Mission Innovation (MI) ministerial, Pittsburgh

23: UNFCCC NDC Synthesis report deadline

24-25: September Global Methane Pledge Summit

TBC date: G7 Foreign Ministers (fringes of UNGA)

Biodiversity: Quite screwed

Scientists are clear - achieving the Paris targets will be impossible if biodiversity loss continues apace. Reports suggesting the global deal for nature negotiations are going well aren’t backed up by those tracking the talks. NGOs insist that the talks could fail if money and serious political commitments are not on the table. In December, world leaders will meet to finalise the deal. Media registration is now open. Reach out to liz.gallagher@gsccnetwork.org if you want to be in on the updates.

Glasgow to Kinshasa

At COP26, donors pledged a $500 million package aimed at slowing deforestation. But nine months later, the public funds can’t compete with extractives. The DRC Government lifted a 20 year moratorium on new industrial logging in the Congo basin. New audits show illegal logging is rife. And now the government is auctioning off its peatlands (holding one of the largest carbon deposits on the planet) to oil companies. Even the US is worried. All this comes ahead of the pre-COP in Kinshasa, 3-5 October, where the government will come under the spotlight as ministers descend.

Country by country

Argentina

In a country where citizens aren’t allowed to buy currency of more than $200 monthly, oil and gas companies are allowed to access the foreign currency markets freely. The government states this is an incentive to produce more hydrocarbons for internal market consumption and for exports. The country will go to the polls in September to decide whether to adopt a new constitution that could have sweeping new protections for the environment and safeguard ecosystems.

Brazil Presidential elections are heating up, and the fate of the Amazon hangs in the balance. The past four years have pushed the Amazon closer to a dangerous tipping point. In the run up to Amazon Day (5 Sept) millions of Brazilians will be mobilising on the streets to give the Amazon a voice in these elections. Recent polls show that three out of four voters consulted (76%) agree with the statement that the Amazon should be one of the main topics on the agenda of presidential candidates.

France

Energy prices are currently at a record low as the government continues to keep curbing hikes in households’ energy costs. There also continue to be a lot of discussions around the use of private jets in the media following a green politician’s proposal to ban them.

Germany

As with much of the EU, Germany is one of several countries facing the worst drought in 500 years. There are huge concerns about the economic impact of the drought and in particular low water levels of the Rhine, Europe’s most important inland waterway. Lots of industry and economic voices have become vocal. The gas crisis worsens as prices have gone up by about a third compared to July. After widespread criticism, the government will revisit gas levies. Meanwhile, the government, along with energy companies Uniper, RWE and EnBW/VNG, has signed a memorandum of understanding on the supply of two floating liquified natural gas terminals at the North Sea coast.

Turkey

The government is due to announce its updated NDC before COP27 and an announcement of a reduction target from a BAU scenario seems likely. Meanwhile, basing their arguments on technical studies, NGOs and think tanks will be demanding at least 35% absolute emission reductions (compared to 2020 levels) with a joint press conference set for 31 August.

That's all for now - we'll have an UNGA77 preview in 10 days plus a wrap of what was delivered (or not) at the start of October. Till then, here's Pasoori by Ali Sethi - the first Pakistani song to top Spotify’s global viral charts and one that - albeit briefly - united audiences across India and Pakistan.