Is wine in danger of becoming a drink for the middle class?

That’s a bit elitist isn’t it?

Not at all. It’s fast become a reality if the combination of inflation, increased energy bills and an overall rise in cost of living pushes wine away from being an affordable, every day item to one you have to think twice about putting in your shopping basket.

But isn’t wine the UK’s favourite alcoholic drink?

It is at the moment. At least according to a 2021 YouGov poll that claimed 32% of UK adults say wine is their favourite alcoholic drink, ahead of beer and spirits at 25% each. We also know that in lockdown people turned to wine like never before, going online to stock up and keep sales climbing - with overall wines sales up 10% in 2020. But being your “favourite” item does not mean you will continue to buy it, if you can’t afford it. There are worrying signs the tide is already turning against wine as a mainstream drinks category, before we even factor in the upcoming rises in cost of living.

What are you basing this on?

CGA, the drinks analyst, is predicting wine sales will fall in the on-trade in 2022 as more people turn to spirits, particularly rum and vodka. It says wine started the year on the back foot having lost 2% in market share versus all other drinks categories in the last quarter of 2021. The warning signs are also there in the US where the Silicon Valley Bank has long been reporting a fall in younger consumers drinking wine, and a market over-reliant on older drinkers. SipSource in the US says that whilst wine and spirits both showed good volume growth in 2020, the two parted ways in 2021 when the trade started opening up again in 2021, and whilst spirits finished the year with 6.1%, wine was down 8.9%.

What are these big economic concerns you have?

It’s not just me. Virtually every economic forecast is predicting trouble ahead for the British consumer. Take the ONS and its Consumer Prices Index (CPI). It rose 6.2% in the 12 months to February 2022, the highest level in more than 30 years, and is predicted to go even higher in the months ahead. Grocery price inflation jumped to 5.5%, its highest level since 2012 (Kantar) and is expected to go higher still. We are also being faced with the highest rate of non-food inflation since February 2011 (British Retail Consortium). All of which is coming on the back of the rise in raw material, commodity and dry good costs around the world that is hitting every sector. Kantar says we are now paying £1.98 more for a basket of 10 popular fridge items, including eggs, fresh meat, cheese and crisps compared to a year ago and with council tax bills rising from April 1 The Telegraph has even come out to say “a typical family will be almost £1,000 a year worse off from [last] Friday.”

What does this mean for the average consumer?

It really depends what you mean by average, but Retail Economics claims the cash left after paying for essentials will fall by almost 6.5%, or £430 this year. Which means people will “cut back on nice-to-haves” - like wine. It’s far worse for the UK’s poorest families who will see their disposable income drop by a fifth this year with £850 less to spend on non-essentials. It’s feared the rise in energy bills, food and transport costs will push many people into the red. The big jump is energy with a near £700 rise in the energy price cap this month. Retail Economics and HyperJar claims 13% of households are only just able to cover minimum payments on credit card bills with a further 6% already unable to do so.